Analysts throughout the western world have repeatedly asserted that the first step in winning the war in Afghanistan is to have a stable Pakistan. To achieve this goal, an unbelievable amount of money is being thrown at Pakistan. A recent Pakistan Donors' Conference, comprising of more than 20 countries and convened by Japan and the World Bank in Tokyo, committed $5 billion in aid to Pakistan. Similarly, the United States is considering a bill that would provide Pakistan with $1.5 billion in direct aid every year for the next five years. Consider the fact that Pakistan, since 2001, has received over $10 billion in direct aid and military reimbursements from the United States, a significant proportion of which has been used by Pakistan for building up its defenses and posts against India.

And has this money been useful even, for Pakistan? A 2008 study by AmericanProgress.org gave the following results
These figures show that since 2001, the flow of funds to Pakistan has not made it any stronger, but only weaker, soon to fall into a state of anarchy. Only 1% of the total funds allocated for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) have been used for development. This is exactly the area which has now been taken over by Taliban, and where girls schools have been torched and the Sharia law implemented. Even across mainland Pakistan, the literacy and employment rates are abyssmal further encouraging the young Pakistanis to take up the route of terrorism.

Some might argue that all of what is happening today is the result of utterly failed policies of the Bush administration, which is true. But is throwing more money at Pakistan the only solution? To be fair enough, the Obama administration IS INDEED attaching a lot of strings to the money being provided to Pakistan (Read the provisions of the PEACE Act here). But once the money does reach Pakistan, whom are you going to hold accountable? Pakistan has already expressed its severe reservations and unhappiness over the strings attached to the federal aid (Read this article in Daily Times).

Even with all the money spent, it is very unlikely that at the end of Obama's first term, or even the second, Pakistan would emerge stronger than it is now, especially given the nature of the geopolitics in the region. The all-pervasive corruption in the system would disallow the money to reach the projects they were intended for. There is a very strong anti-American sentiment in the Muslim population of Pakistan, which is unlikely to quell due to the money being thrown in. This sentiment would further be fuelled by whoever is in the Opposition, assuming Pakistan remains a democracy. Without assuming an anti-American stance the Opposition would never be able to get to power. Coupled with all of this comes the India-centric polity of Pakistan, and the India-phobia of its military and intelligence establishment. It is highly unlikely given these circumstances that money and greater oversight over the distribution of the money would alone help the region get out of this mess.

The only solution to this problem lies in the partition of Pakistan into three provinces - NWFP (which has already become an autonomous region under the Taliban), Balochistan (whose people have been waging a seccesionist battle against Pakistan for decades now) and Punjab. More on that in the next post...

More readings:
1) Sen Carl Levine questions Pakistan Aid Plan
2) Pakistan: Militants make aid work risky
3) Pakistan warns Kerry against aid conditions
4) Coming to grips with an expanding extremist threat in Pakistan