The crisis in Nepal is getting worse. Reports today morning said that the Nepali Maoist PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda, had resigned. This was after his government's decision to fire the current Army chief Gen Rukmangad Katawal was rejected by the President Ram Baran Yadav.

There have been conflicts between the army chief, who under the rule of King Gyanendra two years earlier, had waged a war against the Maoists, before they laid down their arms and decided to enter the mainstream politics. After the Maoists came to power in 2008, they sacked several generals whom they felt were anti-Maoists. They also started recruitment of the Maoists into the army. All this was frustrating the army, which was resisting all these moves by the Maoist government. In the past few months, Gen Katawal had started reinstatement of some of the generals sacked by the Maoist government, and had continued recruitment for the Army despite orders against it by the government. The Army even pulled out of the National Games where they had to participate alongside the Maoists. It was also reported that the Army was planning a "soft coup" to overthrow the government. All this was irking Prachanda even more. He wanted to replace Katawal with the Maoist friendly Kul Bahadur Khadka. Similarly, he wanted the members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) who held officer-ranks in PLA to be integrated and have appropriate ranks in the Nepalese Army. This manipulation of the Army was being resisted by the Army chief

The Army chief had retained his position despite the above due to aggressive public lobbying by India, and also some by the United States. Gen. Katawal is an alumnus of the prestigious Indian Military Academy (IMA) and he is seen as pro-India. India had concerns that the rise of communism in Nepal, its northern neighbour, may lead to an increased influence of China in the region as well as provide safe havens for Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to operate. The integration of the 19,000 strong PLA Army into the Nepalese Army would have accelerated the process of the rise of communism. India and the US did not want that. Prachanda was resisting this lobbying effort very hard. The sacking of the army chief was being seen as a very big failure for Indian diplomacy.

But reports today say that the Prime Minister has resigned. Experts were worried about the rise of dictatorship in Nepal, but that has seemingly not happened. The Maoists have said that they will continue a peaceful struggle against the President and come to power again this time with a good majority. Not surprisingly, they have also blamed India for the debacle. If the Maoists come to power now, which they will soon, the dynamics between the two countries would change drastically. Nepal would move more closer to China and Myanmar. China has been propping up the Maoist struggle for a long time, not just because of the ideological equivalence, but also Nepal's proximity to India and Tibet. China's success in Tibet and South Asia depends to some extent on it securing Nepal for itself.

This is very bad news for India, for whom Nepal has been a very friendly country till now. The Army chief was due to retire anyways in three months. India's strategy in Nepal may have been beneficial in the short term, but it runs the risk of isolating the people of Nepal, who wouldnt want a foreign country meddling in their internal affairs.

India now faces four unstable neighbors - Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It remains to be seen that in this rapidly changing world of geo-politics, what will happen next in the region...!

Further Readings:
1) South block screwed up big Times of India
2) China support spurs power grab by Maoists in Nepal UPI Asia