Events that will happen in Iran in the coming days and months

Sunday, June 21, 2009

-- The protests will grow. However, in absence of a clear direction, they will not have a defined strategy and organisation, making it easier for the government to crackdown on the protesters. However, this wont be fulfilled using the police and the Basij militia due to the sheer scale of the protests.
-- Government will try to clamp down by deploying the Revolutionary Guards. The interactions would get more violent.
-- The protesters will soon feel the need to have superior arms as compared to stones and kerosene they are using currently. Small groups of enthusiastic youngsters will try and make bombs and firearms.
-- Israel and US will try to supply arms and intelligence to some such groups. Israel, especially because it doesnt want a stable Iran. US has a lot of personnel in Iraq, wouldnt be difficult for them to slip a few Iraqis into Iran. Reports suggest Britain also has some hand in the protests.
-- The armed protesters will start targeting members of the so-called "Basij" militia, since they are the most easy targets. They are trying to do that even now, on a smaller scale.
-- The government clampdown will become more violent, and many Iranians will be killed.
-- There will be increasing international pressure on Iran to end the clampdown and have a rerun of the elections, this time with neutral observers.


This is where things get unpredictable. If Iran decides to hold re-elections Ahmedinijad would be very upset. This decision would also undermine the authority of Ayatollah Khomeini. The new government would be hostile to the Ayatollah. Given all these, it is unlikely that the elections will be held again.

If they are not held, several small militant groups will rise in Iran, making it unstable. The government crackdown on these militias will go on for a long time. However, international geopolitics will allow for some resistance groups to stay alive for a long time.

Digg Technorati Delicious StumbleUpon Reddit BlinkList Furl Mixx Facebook Google Bookmark Yahoo

0 comments:

Croaking Martian..Somewhere between Twitter and Wikipedia. 2008 One Winged Angel.Bloggerized by : GosuBlogger